- Daily Log:
- video The Future of Reasoning
- Reason and logic are struggling to keep up with unintended consequences from our own creations
- Like climate change from manufactured goods
- til2021 Hyperobjects
- Coined by philosopher Timothy Morton
- Something that is so massively distributed in space, but so sticky that it adheres to everything
- Any civilization that progresses on reason will create such objects, but the fact that we have not observed any could mean there is a “Great Filter” that the hyperobject create which destroys the civilization
- An hyperobject we are creating could be the climate effects and if we don’t solve it we will be casted out by this great filter
- What if reasoning is not built for what we have become
- Behavioral inertia
- Is the tendency to do what we are already doing
- Reasoning
- A way of making inferences, making new information from existing information
- Not automatic inferences like sight, but deliberately
- Why are we the only species with developed version on this?
- Why do we have disagreements if reasoning is a “good” skill?
- Not only are we bad at reasoning due to bias, but these flaws seem to be intentionally built into us
- We are built to give reasons for whatever we must, and not reason the logical outcome
- Intuitions
- Ability to react to our environment with very low input from our conscious mind
- Instead of reason from facts to a conclusion, we can jump to the conclusion by gathering very low amounts of information without knowing exactly how
- We often use conclusions to come up with reasons
- Reasonings evolved to help us to be social instead of reaching logical conclusions
- From #2. 📚 Books to Read The Enigma of Reason - Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber
- The social theory of reason helps to explain why two people can have different reasons for the same thing - because they are appealing to their own values
- Confirmation bias
- Our tendency to find, interpret and conclude evidence that agree with our initial viewpoint
- Partially developed to reduce cognitive load
- Lone reasoner
- It is known that the “average” answer from a crowd to a problem is often more accurate than any individual person
- Why we tend to have groups deliberate on big decisions instead of letting one person to make an executive decision
- What if reasoning is not built for what we have become
- What we established
- Reasoning seems to be a skill used for social purposes and evolved to enable us to function as a group and not to reach logical conclusions
- A solution that is deliberated and reached by a big group is often better
- Lone reasoner is susceptible to biases and mistakes
- What we noticed
- Such context is becoming less common and it is easier for people to be a “long reasoner”
- Allows people to disengage from different views and find similar views
- The internet forces people to find problems and we feel compelled to have an opinion about all of them
- Specialization and complexity is creating problems that less and less people have basic understandings about
- So we look for experts to defend our viewpoints, since we are suceptible to any kind of reasoning, the experts solely by existing allows us to feel justified
- What this means
- The future of reasoning is the past of reasoning
- We need to use reasoning more ever than before
- Lottocracy - decisions are made by people who gets chosen randomly
- Retrospective::
- Daily Stoic::
- In the life project, our mind is the raw materials