- Metadata
- ==Modelers much not be permitted to project more certainty than their models deserve; politicians must not be allowed to offload accountability to models of their choosing==
- Mind the assumption
- Models are often imported from other applications, where the assumptions made are no longer reasonable
- Require inputs that cant be known for the scenario
- Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be done to potentially mitigate this
- Mind the hubris
- ==Complexity does not equate to accuracy==
- More parameters means more uncertainty due to the uncertainty cascade effect
- Mind the framing
- Model will contain biases from the developers
- The tool can be easily manipulated by the developers to support or decline a certain point of view
- Mind the consequences
- The need to produce numbers can push a discipline away from being roughly right towards being precisely wrong
- Mind the unknowns
- Docta ignorantia is a virtue
- Models can mask or hide ignorance
- Failure to acknowledge this fact can lead to undesired surprises
- #quotes “There is no number-answer to your question” - Anthony Faucci