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Thursday, August 03, 2023

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📅 Daily Questions

🌜 Last night, after work, I

🙌 One thing I'm excited about right now is

🚀 One+ thing I plan to accomplish today is

• [ ]

👎 One thing I'm struggling with today is

📝 Ephemeral Notes

• #til2023 Ergodicity
  • An ergodic system is when the average outcome of a cohort is the same as the average outcome of the individual over time
    • For example, if there are 100 gamblers in a casino and they making bets with the odds that 1/100 gamblers will go bankrupt. But this means that, if gambler number 28 goes bust, it has no effect on gambler number 29. Using the standard cost-benefit analysis - this would have a good expected average return
    • However, if this is applied to a single person across 100 days with the same odds. This person can go bust on day 28 and have no money for future days.
    • This meant that the ensemble probability can't be applied to the time probability of a single individual
  • Usually, financial decisions assume ergodic system when real life is non-ergodic
    • For example, a often used financial planning tool for retirement assumes a constant rate of return in investment. However, if you layer in the actual sequence of rate of return that average out to the constant rate - you can be in a situation where you run out of money sooner than expected
  • Relating to the idea from Nassim Taleb's book [[Antifragile]], there is an idea that some things respond negatively to volatility while others respond positively.
    • Things that respond positively are antifragile and also ergodic

Notes created today

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Notes last touched today

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created: 2023-01-16 11:50